Don’t bring back the 1980s
I cleaned out my closet this past weekend and I came across a horrific suit from the 1980s. The shoulder pads were too big, the waist was too small, and the bright orange and green fabric was anything but just right.
The 1980s were not only a frightening time for fashion, the decade also ushered in one of the worst recessions on record -- even worse than the one we find ourselves in now.
So, in an attempt to look on the bright side of life, I'd like to point out that the economy could be in worse shape than it is right now.
It could be 1980.
At least that's what many of the economic experts say.
Aside from the Great Depression, the economic downturn that ran from 1980 to 1982, and even the one we saw in the mid-1970s, were both the worst of times for small businesses, according to William Dunkelberg, chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business, a trade association.
While the economic indicators are now hovering near the low levels we saw nearly three decades ago, Dunkelberg isn't panicking and doesn't think small business owners should be fearful either.
"We'll get through this year as always," he said. "It's the private sector that will save itself, not the government."
But "getting through" this downturn doesn't mean we'll be going back to the pre-recession craziness, he added.
When I asked Dunkelberg if the credit markets will be opening up again soon, he was pretty blunt:
"Compared to what? They wont go back to what they were, so credit will not be as easy as it was, thank goodness," he stressed. "Plenty of credit for good risks, but no more 120 percent interest-only mortgages. Banks are finally becoming more careful about who they lend savers' money to."
And what about those spend-a-holic consumers of the recent past? When will they start spending again, especially if they are out of work?
It's those of us who still have jobs that caused the lousy fourth quarter, Dunkelberg said, by not spending and driving the U.S. savings rate from 0 percent to 5 percent. (Still, that's nothing to brag about, he added -- it used to be 12 percent). This spending strike led to a reduction in retails sales and a decline in orders and inventories.
However, he continued, "We are deferring spending well beyond sustainable levels, so demand will soon bounce back and it could be very quick. More houses will be built, more cars bought, more equipment purchased.”
I love to hear good news, or at least a bit of optimism for a change.
Let's just keep our fingers crossed that we don't relive the economy of the early 1980s.
But ominous signs persist.
I hear there's going to be a musical on Broadway called "9 to 5" -- it's based on that classic film about women and crummy work conditions in the 1980s that starred Dolly Parton.
And big shoulder pads are again showing up on runways.
This from the Associated Press last month:
Remember the '80s, when big hair and even bigger shoulders were the height of chic? The designers at New York Fashion Week won't let you forget.
Yes, the shoulder pad is back.
Oh man, head for the hills.
Me, I'm heading to the garbage bin to retrieve that 1980s suit.
What's your take? Is this economy worse than the 80s?
